Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 20 brokers · 717 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-23.
The street models AT&T as a steady cash compounder: mid-single-digit revenue growth led by Mobility and fiber, with EBITDA and free cash flow modeled higher every year through FY-2028. Consensus on the dollars is unusually tight; the genuine debate lives in subscriber volumes, not the P&L. Coverage is deep and freshly revised (mostly 2026-07-23), though out-year segment splits rest on far fewer brokers than the headline lines.
Free cash flow is the modeled crux — coverage after the dividend widens every year
The cash bridge is the bull case here: EBITDA and FCF step up each year while capital investment stays roughly flat and the dividend is held, so free cash flow after dividends is modeled to climb sharply. Brokers barely disagree on any of it.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash engine | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | $45.40bn | $47.83bn | $50.07bn | $52.63bn | +5.4% | 15 |
| Cash paid for capital investment | $22.18bn | $23.68bn | $23.68bn | $23.39bn | +6.7% | 16 |
| Free cash flow | $16.37bn | $18.30bn | $19.52bn | $21.63bn | +11.8% | 17 |
| Return | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends paid | $8.18bn | $7.74bn | $7.31bn | $7.05bn | -5.3% | 18 |
| Free cash flow after dividends | $8.19bn | $10.56bn | $12.22bn | $14.58bn | +28.9% | 17 |
Fiber and fixed wireless are the modeled growth engine, outrunning legacy decline
Fiber revenue and connections compound steadily while AT&T Internet Air (fixed wireless) scales from a standing start. Together they are modeled to more than cover the persistent decline in Business Wireline.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer growth | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Consumer wireline/Broadband | $14.25bn | $15.38bn | $16.16bn | $17.83bn | +7.9% | 19 |
| Fiber revenue | $8.72bn | $10.39bn | $11.79bn | $13.26bn | +19.1% | 17 |
| AT&T Fiber connections(K#) | 10.40m Number | 12.86m Number | 14.28m Number | 15.83m Number | +23.7% | 18 |
| AT&T Internet Air revenue | — | $1.44bn | $2.12bn | $2.74bn | — | 15 |
| Legacy drag | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Business wireline | $17.18bn | $16.07bn | $15.16bn | $14.92bn | -6.5% | 19 |
Mobility grinds higher on ARPU as the postpaid net-add pace is modeled to fade
Postpaid phone ARPU creeps up and churn is modeled flat near 0.9%, so Mobility revenue keeps rising even as annual net adds are penciled to decelerate. The volume line is where the models actually diverge (see below).
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Mobility | $88.90bn | $92.56bn | $95.37bn | $97.70bn | +4.1% | 19 |
| Unit economics | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ARPU - Postpaid Phones($) | $56.66 | $57.37 | $57.74 | $58.06 | +1.3% | 16 |
| Churn - Postpaid Phones(%) | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | +0.0pt | 16 |
| Volume | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total net adds - Postpaid Phones(K#) | 1.49m Number | 1.50m Number | 1.26m Number | 1.15m Number | +0.7% | 16 |
Where the models split is volume, not dollars — postpaid and broadband net adds
In contrast to the tight consensus on revenue and cash flow, brokers disagree sharply on how many net adds AT&T can keep booking — the FY-2028 postpaid phone range spans a wide band across roughly a dozen brokers.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net adds - Postpaid Phones(K#) | FY-2028E | 1.15m Number | 1.00m Number–1.30m Number | 700,000 Number–1.71m Number | 11 |
| AT&T Internet Air - Net adds(K#) | FY-2028E | 825,000 Number | 689,120 Number–900,000 Number | 600,000 Number–1.06m Number | 11 |
| AT&T Fiber - Net adds(K#) | FY-2028E | 1.51m Number | 1.45m Number–1.72m Number | 720,000 Number–2.17m Number | 11 |
Fixed wireless is modeled as a real business, but net adds are penciled to peak and fade
AT&T Internet Air revenue and connections are modeled to keep climbing through FY-2028, but the annual net-add pace is penciled to peak and then ease — the street sees FWA as a genuine broadband layer, not an indefinite growth curve.
Headline coverage is deep and fresh; out-year segment splits are thin
Cash-flow and EBITDA lines carry ten or more brokers and were revised on 2026-07-23, so the aggregate model is current. But out-year segment revenue — Business Wireline and Consumer Wireline especially — thins to a handful of brokers, so read those splits as directional rather than settled.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.