CapIQ
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-24.
The tape reads as an earnings-driven upgrade: normalized EPS estimates have climbed roughly 13% for FY2028 over the past six months while revenue forecasts moved less than 2%, and the company has beaten EPS in seven of the last eight quarters with surprises now above 10% as revenue prints within a point or two of consensus. The forward shape is low-single-digit revenue growth carrying about 10-13% annual EPS gains on steady EBITDA and margin expansion. Coverage is deep near-term but thins to a handful of analysts by FY2029.
FY2028 EPS consensus up ~13% over six months while revenue estimates rise under 2%
The gap is widest in FY2028, where the normalized EPS mean rose from 2.575 to 2.91 over 180 days while the revenue mean added only about 1.5%. The last 30-90 day moves are small in both lines.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $2.58 | $2.88 | $2.88 | $2.91 | +0.8% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $2.45 | $2.56 | $2.55 | $2.57 | +0.4% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $133.00bn | $135.03bn | $135.12bn | $135.03bn | -0.0% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $129.30bn | $132.43bn | $132.50bn | $132.05bn | -0.3% |
Normalized EPS beaten five quarters running, surprises widening past 10%, as revenue lands within ~2%
EPS has topped consensus in seven of the last eight quarters; the two largest surprises, +11.6% and +10.7%, are the most recent Q4 and Q2 prints. Revenue surprises stay small and alternate around zero.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive miss; EPS (normalized): 5 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | $31.81bn | $31.56bn | -0.8% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.59 | $0.65 | +10.7% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $31.24bn | $31.51bn | +0.9% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.55 | $0.57 | +3.4% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $32.88bn | $33.47bn | +1.8% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.47 | $0.52 | +11.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $30.89bn | $30.71bn | -0.6% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.54 | $0.54 | +0.4% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $30.48bn | $30.85bn | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.53 | $0.54 | +1.9% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $30.36bn | $30.63bn | +0.9% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.51 | $0.51 | -0.9% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $31.94bn | $32.30bn | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.51 | $0.54 | +6.8% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $30.45bn | $30.21bn | -0.8% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.57 | $0.60 | +5.1% | Beat |
EPS up ~10-13% a year on ~2-3% revenue growth: an operating-leverage story
Revenue compounds in the low single digits while EBITDA margin widens and normalized EPS climbs double digits. Figures are USD millions except per-share EPS.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $125.09bn | $129.29bn | $132.05bn | $135.03bn | $139.42bn | — | 21 | $123.84bn / $126.62bn |
| EBITDA | $46.25bn | $48.13bn | $50.10bn | $52.43bn | $54.44bn | — | 19 | $46.13bn / $46.50bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $2.06 | $2.33 | $2.57 | $2.91 | $3.23 | — | 23 | $2.02 / $2.09 |
The least-settled line is FY2028 EPS: a $2.70-3.18 range across 17 analysts
FY2028 normalized EPS spans $2.70-3.18 across 17 analysts, roughly a 16% spread; FY2029's $3.06-3.49 rests on just 6. The dispute sits in the per-share earnings line more than in revenue.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $2.91 | $2.70–$3.18 | 16.5% | 17 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $135.03bn | $132.16bn–$137.59bn | 4.0% | 16 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2029E | $3.23 | $3.06–$3.49 | 13.3% | 6 |
Street snapshot
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 12, Outperform 4, Hold 9, Underperform 0, Sell 1 | 26 |
| Consensus score | 2.00 | 26 |
| Target price | mean $28.71; median $28.00; high $36.00; low $20.00 | 23 |
Back-year tape thins sharply: FY2029 rests on just 4-6 analysts
FY2029 revenue carries 5 analysts, EBITDA 4 and GAAP net income just 2. Treat the FY2029 column as directional rather than settled consensus.